we’re in the midst of a market bear market that’s hard to write about. how are you guys coping with it, or are you just helplessly bemoaning the situation?
today, both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets continued their bearish/sideways trend, which is practically meaningless to analyze. KOSPI up slightly, KOSDAQ down slightly. that’s about it… I think it was the improvement in economic data at home and abroad and the partial recovery of investor sentiment due to strong corporate earnings that allowed the market to finish at this level.
foreigners have been selling Samsung Electronics for a long time, especially in the past. however, that process seems to have calmed down a bit now. Of course, the issue of Samsung Electronics’ 10 trillion won share buyback seems to be the only good news (?), but even so, it has caused a small amount of foreign buying, showing a rebound centered on large technology stocks and semiconductor stocks.
it is a market that does not show a clear sector-centered uptrend, so I think we should look at the market based on ‘semiconductor’ at this time. Of course, the semiconductor market here refers to the market centered on artificial intelligence (AI). logic chips are good, DRAM market is good, but at the current growth rate of the AI industry, I think it is highly likely that in 25 years, the golden age of Nvidia will arrive, and at the same time, the extreme situation of Samsung Electronics or SK Hynix will be produced. of course, I am very positive on SK hynix.
the automotive sector is one of the few sectors that has finally shown some signs of life in the bearish trend. i think it’s the only company that is currently threatening Tesla by taking its own position in the global EV market, if you exclude the Chinese EV companies, so if the bearish trend in the market calms down a bit, I expect to see an uptrend in EV and autonomous driving technology stocks and component stocks. of course, based on 1Q25.
the bio sector, we’re hearing a lot of new drug news. i don’t put much stock in them because they seem like they’re on to something, they seem like they’re doing something, but there’s no substance to it, and we’ve seen over the last decade or so that they’ll say they’re on track and then they’ll fail. they’re raking in the money… the guys…
so, for example, I recently conveyed the idea that further decline is inevitable if it breaks out of the 41,000 won threshold. Actually, I don’t know about the recent redeemable convertible preferred stock unless I am an insider, but I have a feeling that the bullish trend that deceives retail investors has reached its peak. Just like EcoProbeM or POSCO FutureM in the past…
we are now approaching the time when the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate policy will affect the market. normally, it would be the right situation to cut interest rates, but now that Donald Trump is the president of the United States… i have no idea what to expect. –
chinese economic data is also now important. economic growth rates and manufacturing indicators can directly affect domestic exporters, so it will be important to keep an eye on those as well.
lastly, the KRW exchange rate. the KRW is likely to remain in the 1400s for the foreseeable future. it’s hard to understand why the media has been so quiet, as they used to freak out at the mere sight of the KRW breaking into the 1200s, but it’s logical to assume that the worrisome economic conditions are likely to persist for the foreseeable future.
the conditions are too intimidating to invest, and the flight to safety continues. perhaps a wait-and-see approach is the right answer, but there are plenty of people out there who have no life outside of stocks. ….
if I may dare, I sincerely recommend that you decide your profit for the day within the first 30 minutes of the morning market open and stop trading after that. After all, winners are not those who make a lot, but those who keep a little.
i wish you success in your endeavors.
Good luck.